Methodology

Start here

If you're new to how Civica handles country data and want a plain-English walkthrough before the deep specifications, start here. Every methodology page below assumes the reader has read this one or its equivalent.

• How we approach data

  Plain-English walkthrough of multi-source reconciliation, what the resolver does, what you see on reader pages, and what 'BETA' means here.

Data reconciliation

How Civica integrates and reconciles data from multiple authoritative publishers, what the resolver does when sources disagree, and what provenance signals mean on reader pages.

• Reconciliation

  Beta

  The full specification of how the resolver works. Source taxonomy, the canonical-fact layer, freshness rules, editorial assertions, the dispute system, forecast vs measurement, multi-canonical with scope predicate.

Composite scoring — the Civica Index

The Civica Index is an original 0–100 composite governance score covering 4 governance dimensions, computed quarterly. Its methodology covers indicator selection, weighting, reference periods, and uncertainty.

• Civica Index methodology

  Beta

  The composite specification — 4 governance dimensions, indicator basket, sources, frozen reference periods, weighting approach, uncertainty intervals.

• PCA appendix

  Beta

  The mathematical derivation of the Index weights from principal component analysis on the indicator basket.

Event-driven scoring — the Civica Pulse

The Pulse is a daily directional signal layered on the Index. It ingests governance-relevant events from multiple source feeds, classifies each via a multi-run LLM consensus, applies asymmetric corroboration rules, and decays impacts over time.

• Pulse methodology

  Beta

  The full pipeline — source taxonomy, multi-run classifier, severity tiers, corroboration rules, press-freedom modulation, decay function, double-counting prevention.

• Pulse backtest

  Beta

  Backtest results against 10 named historical governance shocks (Myanmar 2021, Niger 2023, Tunisia 2021, Afghanistan 2021, Sri Lanka 2022, Brazil 2023, Hungary 2010-present, Ethiopia 2020–22, Colombia 2016, Poland 2023).

Classification and peer grouping

Civica's approach to comparing countries is domain-specific: material outcomes use World Bank region × income, governance outcomes use V-Dem Regimes of the World, with Bjørnskov-Rode / CGV available as an alternate regime lens. Constitutional form is preserved as descriptive metadata, not as an analytical taxonomy.

• Peer grouping

  The peer-lens architecture, why government type is not a peer-grouping primitive, how the n ≥ 8 minimum-n rule works, the documented fallback chain.

• Peer grouping — migration table

  The per-country migration table after the retirement of the legacy structural_family taxonomy.

What 'BETA' means here

Two kinds of pages on the site carry a BETA marker. Novel Civica-asserted methodologies — the Civica Index composite, the Pulse classifier, the reconciliation rules — ship with BETA until external academic review. The methodology may be revised post-review with a documented changelog. External methodologies that Civica cites — V-Dem Regimes of the World, World Bank country classifications, Bjørnskov-Rode regime taxonomy, the Cheibub-Gandhi-Vreeland classification — do not carry a BETA marker. They inherit the source institution's standing.

What's not yet published

Internal methodology resolution documents cover decisions like the Wikidata claim-selection policy, the forecast-vs-measurement value-type column, the trade-aggregate goods-vs-merchandise split, the fact-key registry expansion strategy, monarchy-status coding rules, and source-allowlist policy. These form the audit trail behind specific methodology calls and are currently held as working documents. Public publication of a curated subset is a v1.x deliverable — the goal is for any external reviewer to be able to read both what Civica decided and how.

Get in touch

If you spot a methodological gap, want to propose a refinement, or are interested in formal external review, please contact us. External review is an explicit project goal, not a hypothetical.

Cite this page

Civica. (2026). Civica Atlas Methodology — Methodology hub: Methodology hub. Civica Atlas. Retrieved May 7, 2026, from https://civicaatlas.org/methodology